The cryptoverse gained Monday’s battle between bulls and bears – which is expected to continue today in full force.
Many headlines ask rhetorically about the direction in the coming weeks. The question is simple: Will Bitcoin collapse to support at $4,000, or will it go in search of a new historical high?
It is impossible to say where Bitcoin will move in the next few months, but I think some data can help you construct a scenario:
- – Bitcoin managed to escape the broad long-term bearish channel in mid-June. In the last two weeks, Bitcoin tested it again – and for now – it has been respected.
- – Ultra-Long-term indicators show that at no time have bulls lost leadership in the BTC/USD pair. The current advantage of bulls over bears is small. A return to $4,000 would cross these indicators to the bear side and, by the time amplitude, plunge Bitcoin into a long, hard winter.
- – Ultra-Long-term moving averages still move at very low levels, around $4,500. In daily charts, the SMA200 moves around $8,700. The price of any asset usually orbits around this classic moving average of technical analysis.
- – This week is the deadline for the SEC to resolve ETFs over Bitcoin. In recent weeks, several Bitcoin derivative instruments have been launched, such as Futures, Options, and Swaps. It seems complicated to keep barring the passage to an ETF on Bitcoin with these possibilities of obtaining reliable sources of price and implementing risk hedges.
- – The ETH/BTC pair consolidates the bullish trend and keeps the technical pattern active. This pair must be bullish for the market as a whole to improve its valuations.
ETH/BTC Daily Chart
The ETH/BTC crypto cross is currently trading at 0.221, showing some difficulty in conquering the 0.0222 resistance level. The 50-period exponential moving average is about to cross the 200-period simple moving average upwards, which can increase volatility and consolidates the bullish trend if it confirms the bullish cross.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at 0.0222, then the second at 0.023 and the third one at 0.0256.
Below the current price, the first support level is at 0.020, then the second at 0.0189 and the third one at 0.018.
The MACD on the daily chart shows a completely flat profile with no direction. The moving averages of the indicator remain at very high levels and show no weakness.
The DMI on the daily chart shows bulls above the ADX line with a profile hinting at a new bullish rebound that would give way to a new bullish stretch for the ETH/BTC pair.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
The BTC/USD pair is trading at the $8.168 price level after yesterday’s sharp rises. At the moment, Bitcoin is trying to find support at $8,180. The 200 period simple moving average waits at $8,600 to confirm a possible change of direction in the king of cryptocurrencies.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $8,400, then the second at $8,590 and the third one at $8,800.
Below the current price, the first support level is at $8,000, then the second at $7,850 and the third one at $7,500.
The MACD on the daily chart crosses the upside, although it cannot be confirmed yet for the time being. If the bullish cross is confirmed, the market will go back into bullish mode without concessions.
The DMI on the daily chart shows a small improvement in the bulls, which were at their lowest levels. The bears correspond to the movement of the bullish side and lose energy. There is still a long way to go before both sides of the market reach a crossroads.
ETH/USD Daily Chart
ETH/USD is currently trading at $180.5 while seeking support at $180. The EMA50 limits movement up to $188.5 and becomes the level to beat to confirm a tone change in the Ethereum.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $188.5, then the second at $195 and the third one at $200.
Below the current price, the first support level is at $180, then the second at $170 and the third one at $160.
The MACD on the daily chart shows an even more discreet bullish cross than the BTC/USD pair. If this cross is confirmed, the pair will enter pure bullish mode, and we could see new highs in the year.
The DMI on the daily chart shows a significant improvement in the strength of the bulls, although the bears remain at high levels and are not easily defeated. The meeting between both sides of the market should take place in the next few days, which will increase the volatility in ETH/USD.
XRP/USD Daily Chart
XRP/USD is trading at $0.275 after leaving a daily high of close to $0.29. XRP was able to pass the EMA50 yesterday at $0.27, which now becomes the main support line.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $0.285, then the second at $0.285 and the third one at $0.29.
Below the current price, the first support level is at $0.27, then the second at $0.258 and the third one at $0.253.
The MACD on the daily chart continues with the bullish profile achieved yesterday. Today it reaches the zero level, which separates the bullish zone from the bearish zone. This cross is likely to be a complex one that will lead to increased volatility.
The DMI on the daily chart shows how the bulls consolidate above the ADX line and confirm the bullish momentum. The bears continue the bearish trend and thus reinforce the bullish continuation scenario.
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